Plus ça change...

If you know how that line ends, you probably had a good history teacher in high school or college. But even if you don't recognize it in French, it's pretty familiar in English too: the more things change, the more they stay the same.

It's more than a cynical outburst: it's sometimes a statement of fact and sometimes a commonly held perception (sometimes both), which is why it resonates in generation after generation. Somehow I think there are some cynical liberals muttering it under their breath at the latest news that Obama has chosen to continue yet another Bush policy: the use of the "state secrets" privilege to keep certain kinds of surveillance (including wiretaps) secret. Regardless, many liberals who expected this to blow away with the new president are upset.

I think it's a good policy choice, but I doubt there's going to be a statement from the White House with the words "I was wrong" any time soon. Ah, change! But all this is to point out that Obama's presidency has been and will likely continue to be a mixed bag. There are some big changes, and there are some big non-changes. I'm relieved and grateful every time Obama makes what I think is a decent policy choice because I don't really expect it. But it's a fact that he can't do everything the opposite way that Bush did. It's just not possible.

That doesn't stop some folks from reading big changes into relatively small circumstances. Jonah Goldberg's plug on The Corner yesterday generated a smattering of email to this humble blog (thanks, Jonah!), including one arguing that the tow-rope extended to the pirate life-boat and the presence of negotiators constituted a "sea change" from the last administration's policy of refusing to "deal" with those it deemed "evil."

Besides grossly overloading the incident with policy meanings, the charge against the Bush administration is just not true. North Korea and Iran were deemed "evil", and Bush routinely participated in talks of some sort or other throughout his administration. What he did not do, however, was make unilateral concessions hoping that the Iranians or North Koreans would follow suit.

The logic is actually quite good: an evil power is also one you can't trust. So, instead of trusting it, you declare that if it meets such-and-such precondition(s), then there will be some basis on which to strike a bargain. And so "talks" in this kind of situation consist mostly of haggling over the preconditions before arriving at other policy negotiations. Or, to put it another way, it's pre-negotiation negotiation.

But there's a real sea-change in American policy underway that doesn't involve pirates, tow-ropes, or FBI hostage negotiators. Obama is seriously considering a decision to dispense with pre-negotiation negotiation, which means that he's effectively prepared to admit Iran into the nuclear club without further protest. Iran doesn't seem to have gotten the message, though (sorry, I can't read the Arabic script, so we'll have to make do with Rubin's translation): America is still 'the enemy'. So even if we're not calling Iran "evil" any more, Iran is still rooting for a punishment of its chief "enemy."

And so we can modify our little quotation to say, The more America changes, the more Iran stays the same. I hope I may be pardoned for thinking Bush's way was more realistic.

There's another manifestation of this particular policy "sea-change"--this time with Cuba. It's not as dangerous a policy as dropping preconditions with Iran, to be sure, but the logic under which the change takes effect is highly questionable. Apparently Obama hopes that easing travel, communication, and remittance restrictions will inspire goodwill and "foster the beginnings of grassroots democracy." I'm skeptical. Cuba is a repressive and totalitarian state that has little scruple concerning democracy, property, or basic liberty. If Obama seriously thinks that making nice will subvert the Castro regime, I think he's in for a disappointment. Which brings us full-circle:

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose...

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