Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Inflation: it's coming

Our government has been fretting about deflation (which was indeed something of a problem), but inflation is now in the hot seat. This is always the danger when government tries to deal with complex economic issues--bureaucratic inertia prevents the kind of nimbleness that is necessary to start and stop doing the right things at the right times. Usually things start too late and persist too long. It's normal, yes, but the effect compounds with each government switch--which is later and overstays its welcome longer each time.

So much for my non-technical opinion. You really should read Arthur Laffer's warning...and note his pessimism.

The broad lesson to learn is that our choices are not usually between problems and solutions (which is how things often get cast, especially when the government is offering the solutions), but between problems and other problems. Deciding which problems we prefer requires being clear about which ones will occur.

On this, however, I'm not very hopeful. But I'll still be able to say 'I told you so' when inflation gets going. Not that it'll make my savings account any happier, of course.

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